Market Commentary

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Time To Move - It's Earnings Season!

There is a good feeling in the air as it relates to markets, and it's not just the indices. Sure, we have most markets at/near all time highs, but here we are about to start a big earnings season. Just what did these companies accomplish in the first quarter and more importantly what is their outlook for the remainder of the year? Last week say a trickle of reports from the likes of Alcoa, Wells Fargo and JP Morgan. While the numbers were good the usual 'caution' prevailed in their respec...

Apr 13, 2013
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Get Your Money In The Game

This morning, the market opened with a pop to the downside. The sellers arrived early, sold, and I would not be surprised if they took the rest of the day off. After all, the last three weeks or so the bears have threatened to take the market down, way down, and every time they had a shot at that goal, they went home and took a nap. David Moenning sums it up nicely.

  • Three-and-a-half long weeks ago, there was fear the world was unraveling: Markets were set to crash, Cyprus was about to implode...
Apr 12, 2013
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What Does The Future Hold? $MSFT Is A Buy

Microsoft took an absolute beating on Thursday on news that PC sales in the first quarter were much lower than expected.

The stock plunged over 4% and closed near the lows. Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to "sell," as did two other major banks.

Ouch.

So after yesterday's beating, is Microsoft a buy?

STOCK ON SALE

I believe the answer is a strong yes. First, let's keep a little perspective. The hit to Microsoft's share price did nothing more that erase the large gains of the previ...

Apr 12, 2013
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Can The Dow Hit The 15,000 Mark? $DIA $JPM $WFC

U.S. stocks have been climbing to unprecedented levels as optimism on the outlook for earnings and the strengthening economy heartens investors.

On the European front, finance ministers meet in Dublin to discuss the crisis in Cyprus and the Slovenia situation - with extensions to bailouts for Ireland and Portugal reportedly on the agenda.

DAILY CHART
The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF is currently riding a very powerful Elliott Wave 3. This might seem overextended and could be due for ...

Apr 12, 2013
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Breaking BRICs

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund Relative Strength Ratio fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 4/11/13, again confirming a major downtrend.

Stocks rallied for the first 2 hours before chopping sideways with a mild downward bias in the final 4.5 hours on Thursday. The S&P 500 Composite Index finished higher by 0.36%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.09%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by 0.42%, but the Dow Jones Transportation Average reversed to close 0.27% lower.

The S&P 500,...

Apr 12, 2013
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Options Premium Decay Stack the Odds In Your Favor

As every options trader knows premium decay can surprise the holder of long puts and calls.

The process of time decay is even faster for weekly options. Weekly options, decay rapidly, but this does not need to be a detriment if the trader is aware of the process of time decay.

Time decay happens more rapidly as we near expiry, traders of monthly options generally see the premium decay kick in around the last two weeks before the option expires. If the price of the underlying stock does not cha...

Apr 12, 2013
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Learn From Your "Puke Point" $GDX

I didn't realize that I had so much influence on the price of gold.

After riding a small long position in the Market Vectors Gold Mining Stocks a lot longer than I should have while the price sank lower and lower, I gave up in frustration Monday and just decided to dump it. You can guess what followed: GDX rallied more than $1 Tuesday .

Maybe no other traders have ever abandoned a position and then had it turn around the next day to move in the direction desired. A position may seem to make ...

Apr 11, 2013
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Spring Grain Outlook: Plant Seeds For Profit $CORN

Traders flock to the grain markets as planting begins in the spring, drawn by the historical price movement typically seen this time of year.

Opportunity is at its greatest as farmers are deciding what they can plant and the markets are trying to discover a fair price for grain prices as the data rolls in from the USDA and other outside sources. There are a lot of factors and variables that come into play through this process and things can change very quickly, adding to volatility and by ext...

Apr 10, 2013
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Can Sim Trading Help Improve Your Trading Performance?

Those of you who have worked with me know that I am not the greatest fan of paper trading, or sim trading. The reason for this negative bias is simple: Most traders use sim trading for the wrong reasons. They believe that profitable simulator trading proves that they can trade equally as successfully trading live. Traders place emphasis on showing a profit as the benchmark of trading success or failure.

Here is the main issue with simulated trading:

Deep down you know that you are not trading r...
Apr 9, 2013
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Ten Truths To Profitable Futures Trading

Can you make a reasonable living trading futures; say $50,000 per year net profit, which equals $200 per day?

Assuming four trades per day at one contract per trade with a 75% success rate, you would need a net profit of about $125 per trade, no matter what index you are trading. So, a strategy of $125 target/$125 stop, 75% success rate, four trades per day ought to do just fine.

Simple strategy, simple assumptions, and yet the vast majority of new traders fail. Hmmm.

TRUTH ONE
There 419 future...

Apr 8, 2013
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